Ireland’s path to a top-two finish in their FIFA World Cup qualifying group remains open — but only just.
A statistical model we created on Saturday night, to avoid dwelling on the injury-time goal that negated a very positive performance, suggests that Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side has around a nine per cent chance of securing one of the two automatic qualifying spots in UEFA Group F.
With three games left to play, Portugal lead the way on nine points, followed by Hungary on four, Armenia on three, and Ireland on one. That leaves precious little margin for error as Ireland prepare to host Armenia in Dublin tomorrow night before closing their campaign at home to Portugal and away to Hungary in November.
The model, based on Elo-style team ratings adjusted for home advantage and simulated over 200,000 possible outcomes, places Ireland on the edge of contention. The calculations assume realistic probabilities drawn from recent form and betting markets, where Portugal are overwhelming favourites to top the group.
According to the analysis, Ireland have a 66 percent chance of beating Armenia in Dublin, a result that would be vital to keeping qualification hopes alive.
If they do take three points on Tuesday, their chance of a top-two finish rises to roughly 13 per cent. A draw would drop that figure to just 2.5 per cent, while defeat would all but end their campaign, leaving them with less than a one-per cent shot.
Elsewhere in the group, Portugal’s home clash with Hungary could play a decisive role in Ireland’s fate. Should the Portuguese win, Ireland’s qualification probability nudges up to around 10 per cent. A draw cuts it to six, and a Hungarian victory drops it below three.
Ireland’s remaining fixtures offer little comfort. The model gives them only a 10 per cent chance of beating Portugal in Dublin next month and 14 per cent away to Hungary in the group finale. In contrast, Portugal are favoured to win all their remaining games, while Hungary and Armenia are projected to scrap over second place.
The bottom line? Ireland’s route is steep but not entirely blocked. Victory over Armenia is non-negotiable, and even then, the team will need help from elsewhere, starting with Portugal beating Hungary, to keep the dream of a trip to the USA, Mexico and Canada next summer alive.
They still have a path, but it’s very narrow. Beat Armenia, have Portugal do the same to Hungary, get something in Budapest, and roll the dice to exact revenge on Portugal at home. Anything less, and it’s over.
If Ireland can pull off that sequence, the mathematics of hope might yet turn into reality.
Image Credit: Ireland Football on X / Sportsfile
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