Join us today in a fun, free to enter World Cup Forecasting Competition.
If you think you can do better than Goldman Sachs whose predictions are detailed below, then click here. Simply set up a username and password of your own and enter code 88212 when you click ‘join a league’.
We will give away an Ireland football shirt to the eventual winner, and a small memento for anyone who can finish with more points than the detailed algorithms of GS. Human’s will win, won’t they?
According to a 67-page report from Goldman Sachs, Brazil will win this summer’s World Cup, beating Argentina 3-1 in an all South American final. Spain and Germany will be knocked out in the semi finals.
Four years ago the investment bankers got five of the eight quarter finalists right and three of the semi finalists. The teams they predicted to have the second and third highest probability of winning, Spain and the Netherlands made it to the final with Spain winning.
The only real upset they forecast this time round in the group stages is for Iran to make it through before exiting to France at the second round stage after extra time.
A word of caution about following their score forecasts too closely. The model, which incorporates multiple variables and no human influence, suggests no fewer than 33 1-1 draws in the group stages.
That is out of 48 games and is off the charts compared to the norm as represented by 28 similar score lines in 380 Premier League fixtures last season.
There is bad news for England which the report suggests will exit at the first round stage with Uruguay and Italy advancing from Group D.
The report has generated substantial positive coverage for the company. It will be interesting to see if they follow up with a similar report on next year’s Rugby World Cup, given the fact that Ireland will be present and the country managing director here is none other than Hugo MacNeill, a veteran of the sport and a key player in Ireland’s potential bid to host that tournament in 2023.
If you are short of bedtime reading you can download a copy of the report here.
