An independent UK report, commissioned by parkrun, has revealed that there is a very small risk associated with the staging of outdoor participation events.

Utilising data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from March 2021, looking at the prevalence of the virus, alongside antibody levels within the population, the study found that, on average, were parkruns to have been open in March of this year, at 30 per cent of events there would not have been an infectious person present, and at events where an infectious person did participate, there would have been an average R-value of only 0.057.

The study was developed by Professor Clive Beggs at the Queen Mary University of London. He is an expert in the transmission and control of infectious disease and an advisor to the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

10,000 Simulations

A computer model ran through 10,000 simulations of an average 263-person parkrun event, using worst-reasonable-case estimates for the number and duration of human contacts, which resulted in only 0.015% per cent of runners potentially acquiring a COVID-19 infection.

Parkrun events are expected to resume in Britain and Northern Ireland from June and it is hoped that further information on outdoor gatherings in the Republic of Ireland will be indicated in this week’s updated bulletin from the Irish government.

“Our analysis was undertaken using COVID-19 prevalence levels for March 2021, and the results revealed that parkrun events are likely to be very safe,” said Beggs.

“This finding appears to be supported by the evidence from the various road races that have been held around the world during the pandemic, which have been characterised by a noticeable lack of infectious outbreaks. Based on this, it would seem to me that running events are probably already safe in the UK, and getting safer every day as prevalence falls and the vaccine rollout continues.”

The study also suggests that, contrary to popular belief, the risk of infection is even lower at the start line of events like parkrun, than during the event itself. This seems primarily due to the significantly lower breathing rate (pulmonary ventilation rate) of participants prior to the event compared to when running, alongside the relatively short time period participants are gathered together.

Over the 10,000 simulations of the model, Professor Beggs concluded that for the 2.6 million parkrun participants simulated, only one infection would occur on the start line.

This finding suggests that measures such as wave or staggered starts are unnecessary, especially when mitigations that minimise the amount of time participants are gathered together are introduced.

Understanding

“Over the past thirteen months, our understanding of the virus has improved significantly with every academic paper, scientific study, and expert report,” said Nick Pearson, Chief Executive Officer at parkrun.

“We know far more about Coronavirus now than we did last year, and we should use that knowledge to make appropriate fact-based decisions about how and when we return to normal life.”

“We asked Professor Beggs to use only very conservative numbers for his modelling, to try and create a worse-reasonable-case scenario. And it is clear that, even with this cautious approach, the risk of transmission of COVID-19 at an outdoor event like parkrun is vanishingly small.”

“I believe the implications of this report are huge for how we view the risks associated with running events and outdoor sport in general. The chances of any infection at all taking place at organised, risk assessed, outdoor events are in fact minimal, even with up to a few thousand participants.”

“We must use data and evidence to inform decision making and understand that a growing body of evidence does now exist around outdoor sports events such as parkrun, which clearly demonstrates that these events are safe.”

We will discuss the implications of this study as part of Thursday’s Sport for Business Return to Sport conference, details of which and reservations can be made from the link below.


Sport Ireland and Athletics Ireland are among more than 250+ members of the Sport for Business network of sporting and business organisations working together across a number of key areas.

 

Sport for Business Partners